TMC Stock: Price and Recent News – What Reddit is Saying

Okay, let’s talk about The Metals Company (TMC). We’ve seen the headlines: explosive rallies, plummeting prices, and whispers of a comeback. The question is, can this deep-sea mining venture deliver, or is it just another overhyped stock riding a wave of geopolitical anxiety? Let's dive into the numbers.

The October Rollercoaster

TMC delivered one of the more dramatic market stories this autumn. The stock surged above $11 in October, fueled by geopolitical unease and enthusiasm around critical minerals. Then, reality hit. By mid-November, TMC was trading below $5, before rebounding to $7.90 after Deutsche Bank's gold forecast (more on that later). This exposes how quickly speculative optimism can shift.

The initial spike correlated strongly with China's export restrictions, specifically around rare earth elements. The market interpreted this as a boon for alternative sources, like TMC's deep-sea mining ambitions. But as tensions eased – Trump reportedly urged Japan to soften its Taiwan rhetoric – the urgency faded, and profit-taking ensued. This tells you something about the underlying conviction (or lack thereof) in TMC's long-term prospects.

Deutsche Bank's revised gold forecast (US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from US$4,000) is being touted as a catalyst for TMC's potential rebound. The logic? Higher gold prices benefit rare earth metal companies. But here's where I get skeptical. The direct link between gold prices and the viability of deep-sea mining for other metals (nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese) seems tenuous at best. It's correlation, not causation. I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular justification feels…strained.

The Technicals vs. the Fundamentals

Technically, there are signs of stabilization. Long-term buyers stepped in around the 200-day simple moving average, halting the decline. The 50-week moving average has also held firm as a base. Last week’s candle formation resembled a doji, often interpreted as indecision. All well and good, but technical analysis only tells you so much. You can't trade on candle patterns alone.

The fundamental risks remain substantial. TMC continues to operate at a loss. Recent earnings disappointed, suggesting additional funding may be needed. Any future capital raise could dilute shareholders and further pressure the stock. The company is burning cash (roughly $30 million per quarter, according to their last report), and the path to profitability is far from clear.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. How can a company with such uncertain financials and a business model predicated on overcoming immense technological and environmental hurdles command a $2.25 billion market cap (as noted by TipRanks)? The disconnect between valuation and reality is significant. According to TipRanks, Why The Metals Company Stock is Rising Rapidly, this valuation is still rising.

The environmental concerns are also a major overhang. Scientists and environmental groups warn that mining the seabed could cause irreversible ecological damage, potentially triggering stricter regulation or outright bans. This risk hangs over TMC like a Sword of Damocles.

U.S. policy support, while initially a boost (Trump's executive order to accelerate deep-sea mining approvals), hasn't changed the fundamental equation. Commercialization is still a distant goal. Technology costs, environmental requirements, and operational complexity continue to weigh heavily on the company’s outlook.

The Mirage on the Horizon

So, is the deep-sea mining hype just a mirage? The numbers suggest it might be. While technical indicators offer a glimmer of hope for a short-term rebound, the long-term viability of TMC hinges on factors outside its immediate control: commodity prices, regulatory approvals, technological breakthroughs, and, crucially, the absence of catastrophic environmental consequences. Those are some big "ifs."

Vaporware in the Water?

The numbers just don't add up to a sustainable business model right now. TMC feels more like a high-risk, high-reward gamble on a future that may never arrive.